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  DOI Prefix   10.20431


 

International Journal of Research in Environmental Science
Volume 4, Issue 4, 2018, Page No:27-32
doi:dx.doi.org/10.20431/2454-9444.0404004

Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Variability to Guide Sorghum (Sorghum Bicolar) Production in Maitsebri District, Northwestern Tigray, Ethiopia

Mekonnen Yibrah1*, Tilahun Dandesa2, Bezuneh Sego3,Bekele Kebebe3

1.Tigray Meteorology Service Center, Mekele, Ethiopia.
2.Agricultural Transformations Agency, Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia.
3.National Meteorological Agency, Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia.


Citation : Mekonnen Yibrah,et.al,Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Variability to Guide Sorghum (Sorghum Bicolar) Production in Maitsebri District, Northwestern Tigray, Ethiopia International Journal of Research in Environmental Science 2018, 4(4) : 27-32.

Abstract

Assessing climate variability at specific level has enormous advantages in Ethiopia, in which the driving economy is agriculture. This study was conducted to assess rainfall and temperature variability to guide sorghum production in Maitsebri District. Daily gridded climate data was obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia (NMA). Temporal rainfall variability was assessed through the timing of onset date, end date, length of growing season and dry spell length using INSTAT climate guide. Temperature variability was examined in terms of pattern and trend. The long-term annual rainfall showed high variability from year to year with 14.1% coefficient of variation. Seasonally (ONDJF, JJAS and MAM) total rainfall amount showed high variability which was 98.1%, 15.7% and 107% respectively. Rainfall onset date and length of growing season were highly variable. Dry spell length curve converges to minimum from 28June (188DOY) --- 17Sept (261DOY) and diverges on 17October (261DOY) onwards.

Higher minimum temperature values (>180C) was observed from March to Aril whereas maximum temperature reaches its lowest level in August, but increases again to maximum in April and start to decline as of July. The minimum and maximum temperatures showed an increasing trend both seasonally and annually. To avert the risks of rainfall and temperature variability the use of seasonal climate outlook is recommended for adjusting farm operations and farming system decisions in Maitsebri district and its nearby Areas.

The long-term annual rainfall in the study area showed high variability from year to year which was 22.9%. Seasonally, the ONDJF, JJAS and MAM total rainfall also showed high variability which was 89.7%, 24.7% and 62.7% respectively. Except onset date, cessation date and length of growing season were highly variable. The onset date, offset date and length of the rainy season/JJAS were on 184DOY/02JUL, 261DOY/17SEPT and 77 days respectively. Moreover, the minimum dry spell days length converges from 201DOY-241DOY (19July-28Aug) and turn upward again from 241DOY-261DOY (28Aug-17Sep). Thus the maximum Probability of occurrence of dry spell length during the main (JJAS) season implies a negative impact on the agricultural activities of the study area during the study period (1984-2014).


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